Shares in Qantas surprised the market yesterday by not falling through the floor after Airline Partners Australia (APA) finally conceded its $11.1 billion bid was dead.
By afternoon trading on Tuesday, Qantas shares were worth $5.22 each, down 3 per cent on Friday's close of $5.38.
The fall, although significant, was not as steep as some had anticipated should APA's bid fail.
Many in the market felt Qantas was undervalued by APA in the first place, which meant there was no great rush to sell down Qantas exposure.
"It's part of the reason why people didn't want to sell their Qantas shares to APA in the first place. They didn't believe they were getting value," Colonial First State head of investment market research Hans Kunnen said.
"At the moment, the share market seems to be indicating that APA got the price wrong but it's not over yet and we don't know what will happen tomorrow."
The chaos and confusion surrounding the Macquarie Bank-led $5.45 per share offer for Qantas finally came to an end yesterday.
The APA consortium, which also includes US-based private equity firm Texas Pacific, yesterday said in a statement it would not follow up on legal claims it had in fact reached the 50 per cent acceptance rate before last Friday's deadline.
"Given the amount of time it would take were the issue to be litigated, and the consequent uncertainty for both Qantas and its shareholders, APA has decided not to pursue arguments that it did achieve voting power in excess of 50 per cent by the offer deadline."
It added, however, that up to 60 per cent of Qantas shareholders eventually accepted the bid and it would therefore consider making a renewed offer.
Kunnen said that was entirely possible. "It wouldn't surprise anyone if they made another bid, but they would have to do a bit more groundwork," he said.
He also speculated another bidder might easily enter the fray. "Qantas is definitely on people's [mergers and acquisitions] radar now. Anything is possible in this environment."
All eyes are now focused on the Qantas board. The spectacular way in which the deal blew up has led many to question its viability going forward.
"The board is in a shambles. They said yes to the APA bid and their shareholders said no. They clearly have a lot of fence mending to do. This situation has a long way to go," Kunnen said.
Shares in Macquarie Bank have remained steady throughout the debacle. "This is just one deal in many for Macquarie Bank. People tend to look at the overall picture," Kunnen said.
