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Emerging market growth spikes

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4 minute read

Economic activity in emerging markets has increased sharply, indicating they are still leading the global recovery.

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, which measures manufacturing and services output, increased from 55.3 in the third quarter of 2009 to 56.1 in the fourth quarter to post the strongest quarterly gain in two years.

"The latest gains offer yet more support to our long-held view that the global economic recovery is crucially dependent on the health or otherwise of the emerging nations," HSBC chief economist Stephen King said.

The data also showed the growth in emerging markets was not dependent on developed economies.

"In the West, the majority of economies are still in intensive care, unable to deliver any degree of self-sustaining momentum," King said.

 
 

China is still leading the emerging markets' economic charge, and HSBC expected the country to deliver a growth in gross domestic product of 9.5 per cent over 2010, compared with 8.5 per cent last year.

"China has clearly benefited from an enormous domestic stimulus in the form of easy credit and heavy infrastructure spending," King said.

Australia will continue to benefit from this growth, HSBC senior Asia economist Fredric Neumann said.

"Leading indicators point to an ongoing acceleration of growth in China, Australia's largest export market, as of October 2009," Neumann said.

"With the Chinese still ramping up demand, both local investment in the resource sector and shipments overseas will bolster the Australian economy and support economic growth," he said.