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Re-entering the dragon's den

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By Julia Newbould
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7 minute read

IFA managing editor Julia Newbould visited China late last year with a group of advisers invited by Premium China Funds to investigate the investment potential of the country. The trip left many surprised by what they found.

The China story is by no means new, though it's far from over.

There are more than 17 billion living in the country's capital of Beijing.

China's traffic is the worst I've ever seen. In other countries traffic is voluminous and chaotic but it is moving. In Beijing, the population seems resigned to the stagnant traffic despite six lanes each way on major roads.

There is no honking or road rage and whether it is a lag from strict communist rule that discourages citizens from protesting or whether it is the pride of owning a car that sates the residents of the city, I'm not sure.

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Experiencing the sheer size of China firsthand allows you to understand the power that is the Chinese economy. The Beijing airport is the second largest in the world - recently overtaken by Dubai - and operates around 1100 flights a day, with around 1500-1600 a day during last year's Olympics.

However, despite China's signs of growth and activity, not all of the advisers viewed the development as the panacea for the investment woes at home.

"In terms of China, it's not all what it seems to be. It has confirmed that while the Chinese economy is great and I'm very impressed at what the Chinese model is doing for the country and its people, but it's still time to be cautious in investing clients' funds," Avenue Capital adviser George Gulczynski says.

"I'd like to be investing in the emerging economy of which China is one, but I just don't think now is the time. I'm cautious of BRIC [Brazil, Russia, India, China] countries and I'm more comfortable with the Asian economies excluding these."

For Money Plan principal Peter Dunn the main reason he travelled to the country was to confirm in his mind that China was a real and burgeoning economy.

"You hear it from so many people that it's nice to experience it yourself and to get some scale of the place," Dunn says.

"Some of the myths were dispelled - the pollution, smog, for example, on 50 per cent of time the air was clear, other days it was pretty ordinary.

"Growth was predicted to be 9 per cent, and it's now close to 7 per cent. It's not of China's making but as a result of the global malaise, but if you look deeper at the growth in the world next year coming in at about 1 per cent, where would global growth be without China growing at even 4-5 per cent? If you took China and India out of the equation it would be a depression.

"I suppose it's really confirmed for me that China and Asia generally do need to be part of our investment consideration for at least the next decade." From an economic point of view, Ozplan financial planner Lauren Wilson says she was most impressed with Lenovo computers in Shanghai and Shanghai Motors.

"The environmental development in Xian, making a carbon-neutral suburb was also really interesting," Wilson says.

Gulczynski says in Shanghai he was really surprised by the stage of development and modernisation.

"To stand back on the Bund and look across the river was like being in New York or one of the other big financial centres," he says.

"I know people talk about it, but to experience it was awesome. It gave an idea of the enormity of what the Chinese were doing.

"We went to the top of Telecom Tower and each time you looked down there were holes in the ground where new buildings were being erected. One was a shopping centre like Westfield but 10 times the size of anything I've seen before. The industrialisation program there is really exciting to watch."

In September, the Chinese government announced 80 million rural landowners would be allowed to sell their land and move. This means 80 million people will have an enormous amount of money to spend and boost the economy further.

China has set an objective within 12 years to double the incomes of around 700 million people who live on the land and currently make around $800 a year.

The Chinese psyche is not to borrow and live on credit, but to save and buy outright. This includes purchasing televisions, stoves, air-conditioners, cars and even homes.

It's a great lesson. Western economies would be in a better position now if they adopted some of this thinking.

From an Australian's point of view, the China story for exports is dimming, however, the China story internally is something else altogether.

While the export market has been hit hard, less than 15 per cent of its products and services are for export. The loss in export revenue will thus not bring about a recession.

Futuro financial planner Raffi Pailagian has clients invested in China. "It's over a year since we entered the market. I'm big on the China story. I cover the sector approach and MSCI representing the emerging markets in Asia. It's a major economy. I use Platinum and another fund which is not MSCI correlated, such as Aberdeen or Zurich," Pailagian said.

"For clients, they have to have at least $300,000 and I put them in at least 10 funds.

"I thought Asia was an export story, but it's an internal consumption story. Exports are not a priority - it's only 19 per cent that is exported. That's given me a lot of comfort. You look at the younger people and they are spend, spend, spend. We saw it every day. The wealthier in status were buying Lear jets."

Wilson says she was interested in the China trip because she had been using the Premium fund for some time and was hoping to see the development of the country as it happens.

"It's been underdeveloped for some time and it has been closed to the public. The development is now coming quickly and I wanted to see the economy that had been sheltered and shut down for some time and was developing now. I wanted to see the process," she says.

Dunn offers the Premium China Fund as part of his standard global mix for investors. He also offers Platinum and Axa Bernstein Global.

"You sit in a building such as the airport and it's the biggest in the world and that's what average Australians don't understand. We hear a lot of quoting of numbers but they are just numbers before you see it. Clearly [here] consumerism is alive and well," he says.

"One of the properties we visited was a 40 square metre townhouse over three levels, which would cost around $1 million. The whole village would be worth $1 billion. There were six high rises, 42 floors, six towers. This is one development worth $11 billion."

Premium Wealth Management planner Ian Rae has used the Premium fund since inception and has always placed client money into it.

"We've done very well and clients are still up 40-50 per cent. They were up 90 per cent in the first year," Rae says.

Positive Financial Solutions adviser Norman Dawe found the trip a great experience.

"We loved it from the tourist point of view. It was a great insight of China to meet with companies. We were impressed by the standard of things," Dawe says.

"I think not understanding the communist nature of China I was intrigued to see the wealth of some individuals and the different between the wealth of some and the poverty of others. I was intrigued at what's behind the scenes."