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US market in search of negative news

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By Owen Holdaway
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3 minute read

May slow down, may not eventuate

The saying amongst investors "when in May, go away" this year seems an overreaction.

On Friday, the USA released its job figures for the month of March. The data, showing a gain of 88,000 jobs, was slightly lower than the market expected.

The market fell in reaction to the news, with the S&P down by one per cent and the Dow down by 0.1 per cent on last week.

BT chief economist Chris Caton, in his Monday podcast, put it down to "skittish" investors, who are looking to fill the belief that May is seasonally the start of a weak month for stocks.

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"Every man and his dog is looking for a spring and summer slowdown," he said.

Shane Oliver from AMP Capital further told InvestorWeekly, "this is a well-known seasonal pattern and that pattern has been quite pronounced in the past few years."

And although Mr Oliver believes there could be a fall, he said it is unlikely to be as strong as previous years.

"Yes, there could be a correction, but it is probably not going to be as bad as the 2010 slumps," he said.

He sees strong responses to the crisis in Europe and better data out of the USA as pointing to a more gentle fall.

Mr Caton would seem to agree, saying that "signs that are consistent with that [a stock fall] are over read".

More generally, Mr Oliver cautioned investors against putting too much weight behind the adage. He said it can be useful for timings, but not to use it as a basis for investment strategies.

"While I would not use it to trade" he said, "it is useful to time trades in markets."