It is hard to say the investment banking industry is dead after an emotional 2008, a year in which Wall Street firms endured unprecedented consolidation, according to a recruitment group.
"It's too difficult to call really. I think in every downturn just right after the event people say 'it's never going to be the same again', but things do come back," Tardis Group managing director Neil MacLean said.
His comments follow a study by business information provider IBISWorld, which said investment banking and securities brokerage would be among the 10 riskiest industries in 2009.
Major institutions including Macquarie Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have shed investment banking jobs.
But there are still some opportunities for the profession, according to MacLean.
"Distressed debt bankers should be able to get a job, debt capital market bankers will also be able to get roles, but in general I think the market will be in contraction mode for the first six months of the year," MacLean said.
In 2008 Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, Bear Stearns was sold to JPMorgan, Bank of America agreed to buy Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs became bank holding companies.
MacLean said 2009 was probably going to be a repeat of 2000, when investment bankers called him seeking part time work because the dotcom bust caused the investment banking industry to shrink.
It blossomed again in 2003.
"Right now, investment bankers are retired or out of the market because firms are scaling back, but we'll ride the wave again. It all comes in cycles," MacLean said.
