AMP is believed to be preparing a last ditch attempt to block National Australia Bank's (NAB) $13.3 billion takeover of Axa Asia Pacific (Axa APH) should the deal gain clearance from the competition watchdog, sources close to the deal have said.
Should NAB manage to appease the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's (ACCC) fears that the deal would reduce industry competition, AMP may take its case to the Treasurer and claim that the bank's takeover of Axa isn't in the national interest.
AMP would argue that NAB's takeover of Axa APH would further reduce competition after Westpac's purchase of St George, Commonwealth Bank's acquisition of BankWest and ANZ's buyout of all of the ING joint venture.
NAB's potential purchase would enlarge a bank that is already the country's third-largest by value, whereas AMP chief executive Craig Dunn has said that a merged AMP and Axa would create a fifth pillar.
But analysts reckon the deal should be able to gain the Treasurer's approval if NAB managed to sway the ACCC.
"I think, in this case, the buck stops with the ACCC," CMC Markets analyst David Taylor said.
"I don't think Wayne Swan would have any issues against the deal from a political point of view, but he will certainly take into account possible pricing impacts on the market."
Taylor also said there wouldn't be a different view on the deal from Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey, if he was to take Swan's job later this month.
"From all the information I have at present, I don't think there will be any material difference between Joe Hockey and Wayne Swan on the NAB/Axa deal," he said.
Lincoln Indicators analyst Michael Feller said if NAB was willing to divest the Axa North platform, it's possible that it would appease the ACCC.
"Obviously we will have to wait and see - I think NAB has got a good case," Feller said.
"If [NAB] can divest North, certainly I think its very possible that it would pass the ACCC," he said.
NAB yesterday confirmed it is in discussions with the ACCC in relation to its bid for Axa.
