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Business confidence slows in November

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Business confidence weakened over November, falling from 136.3 in October to 131.1 last month, according to the latest Roy Morgan Research Business Confidence survey.

This was in contrast to the September and October results, which both saw gains. 

The survey results were based on 1,624 interviews spanning across all industries, business sizes and locations across Australia. 

According to Roy Morgan, businesses were less positive about the direction of the economy in the next one to five years, which led to a drop in confidence. 

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The proportion of businesses looking to expand in the next 12 months also declined.  

The fall in business confidence in November was experienced across all business sizes, according to the survey results.

Micro business confidence fell 5.4 points to 128.4, small business confidence declined 4.4 points to 143.3, and medium/large business confidence fell 3.4 points to 146.9.

Medium/large businesses remain the most confident based on the survey results of the last three years, despite this month’s minor drop. 

Roy Morgan Research industry communications director Norman Morris believes the November results were impacted by the significant amount of press coverage of the budgetary situation and the need to raise the debt ceiling by $200 billion.

Mr Morris said this appeared to be a “complete turn-around from the picture that was presented prior to the election”.

He said the issues surrounding the Gonski school funding had also led to increased uncertainty and confusion around future government plans.  

“Other events that are likely to have co-contributed to a more negative outlook for business included the spying controversy regarding Indonesia, problems in the car manufacturing industry and forecasts that the growth in the Australian economy was slowing,” said Mr Morris. 

He said while the decline in the Australian dollar was positive for exporters, it also had a negative impact on the import of goods. 

Out of all the states, Western Australian and South Australia suffered the most significant losses during November; Tasmania, however, still has the lowest overall business confidence at 124.5. 

Mining remains the most confident industry with a score of 149.7, while the agricultural sector is still below average confidence with a score of 121.9, despite the improvement from the 118.7 October figure.  

Mr Morris said the two percentage point decline of the ASX 200 in November reflected negative feelings towards the Australian economy. 

“Despite these negative impacts, the level of business confidence in Australia remains above the average seen over the last three years, but it has shown itself to be very sensitive to any local or overseas events which are difficult to predict,” he said.