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Developed markets set for higher GDP growth

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Threadneedle Investments believes the strength of the global economic recovery will result in higher than expected GDP growth for both the US and the UK in 2014.

The company now expects GDP growth to be at 2.7 per cent for the US, up from its initial prediction of 2.5 per cent.

It has also raised its GDP growth forecast for the UK from 2.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent. 

Threadneedle Investments chief investment officer Mark Burgess said that the global economic recovery is gathering pace and that it is being driven by the developed world.

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“As a result, we have raised our economic growth forecasts for the three major economies,” he said. 

“The US is increasingly becoming an attractive base for manufacturing, while housing and consumption remain strong.”

Mr Burgess said the UK housing market has also improved, particularly in areas outside London. 

“The unemployment rate has fallen materially and consumption shows increased confidence,” he said. 

Mr Burgess said Threadneedle has also increased its Euro area forecast, following the strong growth in Germany and better than expected recovery in Spain and Ireland. 

He believes volatility in emerging markets is likely to persist in the short term, however.

“Tapering of quantitative easing is leading to capital outflows from the region, putting a strain on currencies, especially in those economies with weak balance of payments,” he said. 

“Consequently, we are seeing a number of interest rate rises to defend currencies which, in turn, will hit economic activity.”

Threadneedle does not believe these issues in emerging markets will lead to another contagion, however.

“We see the current emerging market weakness as a correction after a strong rally, which could offer an opportunity to add to equity positions,” said Mr Burgess. 

He said that Threadneedle continues to search for “Strong, growing companies, payers of good and increasing dividends, M&A beneficiaries and companies well-positioned for the global economic recovery”.